The Blog

2021-

2021-12-28 a
IT DOESN'T ADD UP I
(There is no direct test for Covid "variants." The prevalence of "variants" is an estimate based on models, projections and extrapolations. "Surges" in "cases" are manufactured by increasing the number of multiplication cycles of PCR tests. Higher cycle thresholds yield more false positive results. Lower cycle thresholds produce fewer "cases.")

CDC’s estimate for the prevalence of Omicron last week dropped significantly from 73.2% w/ a 95% prediction interval of 34-94.9% down to 22.5% w/ a 95% prediction interval of 15.4-31.5%.

12/25 estimate is 58.6% with a 95% prediction interval of 41.5-74%. https://t.co/eaMCVk3TEc pic.twitter.com/ZjEvREb7Gs

— David Lim (@davidalim) December 28, 2021

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