Sunday Talks, El-Erian Speaks in Coded Language About Inflation Not Going to Improve

Mohamed El-Erian is generally more correct than most, but the insufferable coded language he is required to use makes it difficult for the ordinary person to see exactly what he is saying.   For this CBS segment, we will apply the decipher. [Transcript Here]

Notice this key phrase in the beginning of his discussion of inflation. “Of course, we know about the Ukraine war, we know about the energy transition, also the Federal Reserve mischaracterize inflation and fell behind.”  No, Mohamed, most Americans do not know about the forced energy transition and how that has created this unavoidable inflation spiral.  How about dropping the code and saying it directly?  Joe Biden initiating the Green New Deal means much higher prices are permanent.

El-Erian speaks about supply side inflation, but doesn’t want to talk about the next phase, demand and service side inflation.  The three month inflation data is higher than the year-over-year inflation data. That means inflation is growing.  There is no way for inflation to drop when the most recent price increases are significantly higher than the previous price increases.  Inflation is now detached from any intervention. WATCH.

Consumer demand for non critical goods is contracting at the same time prices continue rising (that’s stagflation).  Demand side contraction, what El Erian calls “demand destruction,” means lost jobs (that’s recession).  Food, fuel and energy prices all continue rising.  The field costs are higher than current fork costs, and that (30%+) wave of inflation coming in from over the horizon is going to blow the doors off any economic growth.  The process is unavoidable now.

The credit markets will feel the impact before the end of the year as consumers will no longer be able to make payments for loans, and still eat.  Mortgage defaults will increase, vehicle repossessions will increase, credit card debt and bankruptcies will increase. The credit markets will get drowned in a tsunami of default.  That’s the direct language El Erian will not use, but it is present inside the coded-language he does use.

If you did not purchase a house this year, you are ahead financially.  Equity and values are plummeting. (read more)