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2020-

2020-08-19 d
THE CORONA-CON III

Is there science or fiction behind the Government’s Covid-19 decisions?
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But what is the science? Should we really be treating a small group of Government scientists conclusions as objective truth, when not only are others in stark disagreement, but their own findings are riddled with inconsistencies?
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On 2 June, Professor Ferguson admitted that Sweden had used the same science as the UK, yet unlike us they chose not to lock down, keeping offices, schools, restaurants and bars open. Puzzlingly, their death rate per million is 477, lower than our figure of 608. Belgium, who implemented one of the strictest lockdowns, has suffered 823, the highest in the world. Figures from the Swedish Public Health Agency suggest that applying Ferguson’s modelling to Sweden would have seen 75 times the number of deaths.

What I don’t understand is why we put our trust in this mad modeller in the first place? Looking at his track record, he’s been way off the mark on virtually every pandemic he’s meddled in. In 2009 he projected 63,000 UK deaths from Swine Flu, yet the number ended up standing at 457. For the mad cow’s disease (BSE), he cautioned that 136,000 could die, but only 177 did. If this wasn’t enough, he got the whole world in a flap in 2005 when he predicted that 200 million would die. The death toll was 243. I think, perhaps, he must have caught the mad cow’s disease himself and omitted the E in BSE! It’s the only explanation for it.

There’s something insidious about the way that the model was cobbled together. Ferguson chose not to release it to the science community until we were on our sixth week of lockdown. With a country scared witless over the virus, this time it was the scientists turn.
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A happy ending?

Rather than a soul-sucking dementor or dastardly Dalek, Covid-19 could be nothing more than a Disney dormouse, inhabitting the land of mythical political science.

As the scientist and Nobel Peace Prize winner Michael Levitt muses, exaggerating the impact of a disease ‘poses less risk to professional reputations’ than understating it. The panic created by Professor Ferguson no doubt played an integral part in the hurry to discharge untested hospital patients back to care homes. The epidemic in settings like these has played havoc with the make-believe R number, which the Government and media has gradually socially distanced itself away from.

As the businessman Luke Johnson said, ‘Full-blown lockdown has such a vast cost in terms of collateral damage, its promoters among the media, politicians and SAGE will never admit it was a mistake. Their reputations and self esteem would be shredded. So they will defend it despite the great harms’.

So when we pull the face masks off, the real villains could turn out to be the same proclaiming to read out of the storybook of science. But unlike a fictitious fantasy, we won’t live happily ever after. The reality and consequences of what we’ve done to our liberty, economy and health will continue for us still living down here on planet Earth. Perhaps then, it’s down to us, and not the Doctor, to lead the way and save the world. (read more)

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