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2020-

2020-10-28 c
THE COVID-CON III

How Covid Deaths Are Over-Counted

The system for counting deaths from Covid is not working properly and we are over-counting Covid deaths. This can be fixed, easily, by improving cross-checking and retesting all alleged positive PCR test results. Accurate data is a basic prerequisite for good policy choices. The remedial steps needed are simple and relatively inexpensive. Central government should mandate them to be done immediately.

When trying to understand the impact of increased testing on case numbers we look to the percentage of tests reported as positive. In a similar way, it is important to double check other data points against each other, as percentages, to truly understand how the epidemic is progressing. Using this approach, it appears that we are over-counting deaths because there are not enough severely sick people from Covid to account for them. In other words, there are proportionately more Covid deaths per case and per hospital admission since the Summer. This paper explains this phenomenon and calls for proper scientific cross-checking to be instituted before a Covid outbreak is declared.

Contradictions in the data

The ONS carry out random testing of the population to estimate how many people have Covid in the UK each week. A sample of people are randomly tested and then modelling is used to predict what proportion of the population test positive at that time. This estimate includes all ‘asymptomatic cases’ so should be higher than the number that eventually come forward with symptoms and are diagnosed as true positive cases. (Whether asymptomatic cases can be considered ‘true’ infections is a separate matter entirely, which will not be discussed here.)
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Mathematical models that assume every rise will be an exponential one without any real ‘sense check’ must be abandoned. The Government must acknowledge that those carrying out the modelling may be erring on the side of caution when evaluating the evidence presented to them. They must also ensure that real world data is given more weight than mathematical models especially when the two are in brazen conflict. A model is only as good as the data put into it.

Modelling has its place but also has severe limitations when too much reliance is placed on many dubious assumptions and seemingly authoritative outputs with lots of zeros. What is needed is a much more careful approach to diagnosis. Loss of sense of smell or characteristic ‘ground glass’ findings on chest CT scans should be used as a gateway to testing. Any patient testing positive should have a second positive confirmatory test before an official diagnosis is made. Although this approach is less sensitive it would still have sufficient sensitivity to detect a genuine outbreak and prevent spread. The current approach to testing has become the problem it was designed to stop. (read more)

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