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2020-

2020-11-01 b
A LENGTHY AND EXCELLENT ANALYSIS
(minimal editing and grammatical corrections performed, BOLD TYPE mine)

The Mandate of Heaven’s One True Anointed One

In many ways this year’s election is the much awaited bigger budget sequel to the 2016 election. Although the budget is bigger, the plot is crazier and the blueprint that made the last election so historical is somehow being recreated and even as an incumbent Trump is cast once again as the underdog, something is a bit looser and less crisp then the original.

During the last election Matthew Yglesias claimed a Trump victory would lead to roving mobs of trump supporters beating up Jews at random, a major celebrity said Donald Trump winning was like a second 9/11 and got a lot of retweets saying so on twitter. I took a bet with someone very intelligent and reasonable that Donald Trump would not nuke anyone, start a random war, cause international crisis, or crash the economy in his first year or anything of such magnitude. This was a normal thing people claimed Trump would do if he won, in fact many people were certain of it and this was central to their argument for who to vote for in 2016. People seemed very sure Donald Trump would be the worst president in American history and were equally sure there was no way he could win.

The last four years have been an exercise in playing out saving face for these total mistakes. Nothing will be able to match the fever dream manic break the shock of the last election was, I remember calling my father late in the night as the results were finally announced since he was away out of town on a fishing trip, we laughed hysterically for eight or ten minutes straight. For some time after all but a small sliver of people felt conceptually shattered, everyone was searching for takes, books and talking points about what the heck happened and what do they not understand about their own country and what even is Donald Trump. Unfortunately, having watched this effort unfold I have not come away impressed. As the bigger budget yet lacking some of the magic of the original sequel this election seems to be about either laying incorrect premises to rest more definitively both by repetition and conceptually controlling for claims made, or proving the Trumpist chink in armor as a weird mistake that can be explained away while the people who used to control the Republican party can claw control back and claim Trumpism refuted. I will explain here in total what I think has and is unfolding, and why the often repeated arguments for why Trump is the worse candidate are totally wrong.

What happened, and what is the deal with Donald Trump:

Although he is an outsider he has had a lot of experience specifically with presidential campaigns. As far as the recent past goes, none of these policies are so out of the ordinary. Obama ran on renegotiating NAFTA and claimed he felt resentful when immigrants did not know how to speak English, paying lip service to the things Trump ran on was pretty normal in our political culture. What is funny about how Trump has been transgressive in his political platform is that as the WWE candidate he is not shocking in how he is fake, but in how he takes what other candidates fake and used it for real. Donald Trump saw the shape the republican party was in, and assumed with a back of the napkin platform he could run for real.

The specifics of why he decided to run for real matter less for this, there is the obvious angle of revenge on Obama for his comedian written white house correspondence dinner roast of Trump, but what people don’t remember is Obama waited to announce Osama Bin Laden was killed until Trump's celebrity apprentice finale which was very big that year, and basically interrupted the program and ruined the live airing with his announcement. It was that moment I knew Trump would not forget this and why I assumed he was running for real come 2015. Adding to this there was a specific personal gripe with Jeb Bush as well and Trump probably had an even bigger vendetta against him than Obama. His convictions on trade and immigration seem genuine, and I’m sure they all added together to his decision to run.

His political background and motivations out of the way, what you need to understand about Trump is he has spent his whole life engaging with the press. He has been a self-styled political commentator almost his whole adult life, the host of Firing Line claimed he was by far the best guest he could have on because he always was up on all the latest newspaper stories was very concerned with helping the program and put on a good show while still having opinions that were just provocative enough and helped keep the hour running along. He seemed to be capable of doing this off the cuff at random and this is compared to politicians and people who write books. You can go back to clips of him when he was young and see how he well he did this. Although his enemies would have you believe he is nothing but a Fox News watching random old man, if anything any shakiness is the result of having been so media saturated for so long in his old age he has come back around to not thinking it matters to keep up with as well and not seeming to be bothered by not doing so. He is confident in the fundamentals so much he feels he can afford to be uninformed on the margins. The mechanism leading to this is surely aging, but after a full long life of the playing the media game he feels he doesn’t even really need to do his homework at all.

The game being played when it comes to the president is a small cabal of media creatures both report on the president and in the case of a Democrat president run his administration. This small group of people all know each other, hang out with each other, and marry each other. You have seen plenty of these types on twitter, they take themselves very seriously and Watergate is their foundational mythos. You should see the things they say and talk even when defending Gawker for breaking the law. There continues to be a Watergate shaped hole in their heart, and although the adversarial format is only activated when the president is Republican even a Democrat white house feels they are constantly under siege. Even though there has probably never been a president more beloved by the press then Obama, his white house made every decision paranoid of their possible negative reaction.
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The game a president has to play with the press is the press is the prosecution and the president is the defense. If you are a democrat the prosecution is only pretend and the judge is on your side, if you are a republican you will go to jail for two years on a technicality and every charge that can be dropped on you will be dropped on you. Racist? Murderer? Hitler? Sure, why not, lets see what sticks! And you better have hired an ace team of lawyers! Both sides have their own think tanks and legitimacy laundering NGOs and one side cites from their side and the other says that’s actually wrong our sides is correct. You submit yourself to the nerd trivia game and any misstep will get blown up every single day. Twitter is a website where mad libs prompt journalists into why the latest thing x republican did is actually bad. We recently got a historic middle east peace deal and what did journalists on twitter do? “Here is my on the spot reason for why this historic middle east peace deal is actually bad.“

The game, as Donald Trump would put it, and he more then anyone would know, is RIGGED. Donald Trump represents himself in court, and does no preparation or homework at all. The thing is the court does not decide who is president, elections do, the court is a complete fabrication. Trump sometimes doesn’t even remember what his side is supposed to claim or think, he doesn’t list statistics or studies so much as hearsay and I heard from a guy guide him. According to the press “people tell me” is not admissible in court. The prosecution however has a strange quirk, they hold that the press, and people who believe the press, win via emotional arousal. And their job is to convince themselves to be as emotionally aroused as possible to maximize effectiveness. This is the whole point of this fake prosecution, but the trouble is they do not know the difference between what is real and what is most effective and the most extreme thing they can accuse the defendant of. Normally so much the better, but when someone represents himself in court but also is strangely good at doing so, suddenly the attitude of throwing whatever they can manage to stick changes character. Suddenly the prosecution really can convince themselves the defendant is a super-duper-mega Hitler who takes orders directly from Putin, when he shows up to court he does it all wrong and the charges stick!
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The thing that changed is that court was in session. And when someone is in contempt of court and you were already throwing the book at him, you start adding crazy charges. Every step of the way Trump refused to bend, he never apologized, he didn’t like having to denounce every random guy, and he didn’t like wavering from the fact was his policy would be saying nice things about world leaders and being willing to talk with them. He hardly was willing to even modulate or give exceptions or half measures or budge any amount whatsoever. Worst of all, he made the press into one of the main players and enemies in the election. If the press really were the sacred truth tellers they style themselves as, you would think they would pay it no mind and continue to plug along doing their sacred job. They would never ever bend the rules and fudge the books and go tit for tat with someone they claim is beneath them would they? Donald Trump broke norms by representing himself in court and refusing to play the game. The press responded by accusing him of taking orders from Putin and making people think he would nuke random people so they could win an election, all for the sake of norms of course. The crux of it is the press felt personally insulted and are more venal and drama-obsessed than the WWE president, because Trump represents himself in court and because they thought he had no chance at winning they felt safe going harder then they had ever gone before. None of it would matter because he would lose and they could move on. Case closed.

Unfortunately for them, Donald Trump comfortably won, and they have been stuck in place. Cults that don’t get judgment day as predicted usually respond by believing in their cult even harder.
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Now we are here in 2020, and for the 2020 election the heavens parted and we have been granted a perfect natural experiment. Many of the complaints people claimed were the main reasons we needed to get rid of Trump for are now perfectly selected for. Would you still vote for Trump even if your main complaints are no longer addressed? Donald Trump is supposed to be too old and demented, made too many flubs that made him unfit by temperament, and was corrupt and sleazy. Of all the democrats they chose to run they picked someone older, more demented, more flub prone and yes, more corrupt, too. This I think is when the claim people should want things to return to normal runs cold. It is now no longer that Trump makes more flubs and this causes the negative press reaction which they are tired of, it is that the press is perfectly capable of being charitable to flubs and it was never about the misspeaking in the first place. The invisible poltergeist that breaks dishes and moves chairs that was once confusing our beleaguered so called centrist has now been covered in flour and can no longer go ignored.

The Trump campaign has finally released its October surprise which includes troves of newsworthy information and salacious pictures. Twitter has blocked the New York Post’s account over it and attempted to suppress linking the story, even going so far as to censor the Trump Campaign and press secretary. Every day, the press works hard to argue why we shouldn’t be talking about the biggest story of the month and why it isn’t actually newsworthy. Hunter Biden is on tape talking about how his business partner, in his own words, was the spymaster of China and the press doesn’t talk about it. After three years of daily hysteria over Russia, you would think that if Don Jr was on tape talking about how his business partner was the head of the FSB people wouldn’t log on to twitter to argue well that’s just Trump’s son, that has nothing to do with Trump we shouldn’t talk about this. People would be acting like we were under foreign occupation there would be a special counsel and the press would be talking about it non stop. If you have the magic D next to your name, suddenly no one wants to talk about it. We are to believe that Joe Biden’s brother made billions off of China and his son was making millions as being no big deal while the press talks about Donald Trump’s company opening a Chinese bank account to attempt to explore making buildings in China. Donald Trump opening a bank account then closing it is corruption but Biden family members making billions has nothing to do with Joe, I suppose Joe Biden’s brother is just a better business man then Donald Trump is. That’s why he was able to make money in China, which is not corrupt even though it was while Joe Biden was vice president, and why Donald Trump not being able to make billions is proof that he is even though it was when he wasn’t president. If only Donald Trump had gotten advice from the Bidens, he could have both learned to make more money and be less corrupt!

This is the “normal” people support if they decide to support Biden. They don’t want to deal with the stories making them feel bad about who their president is detailing his previous Chinese bank account, they would prefer everyone was repressed from sharing a story where the president is making money with the spymaster of China, on a website that cooperates with Chinese censors. They don’t want a president who is accused of authoritarianism so instead they want to put people in charge who would stamp out people sharing proof they profit off of one of the biggest dictatorships on the planet. They don’t want endless bullshit investigations they have to hear about, they want legitimate investigations avoided or squashed. They don’t want to have to pay attention to the news, they want to go back to normal when real news was buried and socially repressed. They don’t want a gross tea party mystery cult complaining about pedophiles in a way they don’t like, they want to go back to when an actual pedophile cabal ruled over them and repressed anyone from discussing it socially (as Clinton ran only four years ago). Normal is Bill Clinton engaging in rampant corruption in Russia, normal is McCain claiming to be a Russia hawk while his most important staffers and advisors accepted money from Russia to give off Montenegro to Russian oligarchs. Normal is Biden getting a wire transfer from the ex-mayor of Moscow via his son to possibly let Crimea slide for cash. They don’t want a marginally better presidency that the press claims is the worst of all time, they want rampant corruption and awful decisions that the press covers up for and lies to you about. The question is how do you like your lies, do you want your lies to be that your president is getting campaign advice from Putin somehow so you feel bad and demoralized into compliance, or do you want lies about white helmets as moderate rebels and good wars while our air force covers for villages being wiped out? Do you want the press to lie to you and tell you it's worse then it is, or to repress while it insists the mediocre and pathetic people in charge are doing a good job?

The most damning supposed proof Trump is and would be worse is his handling of corona. People claim because of a private interview he covered up how bad it was, should have acted sooner, and pretended there was no problem and never did anything. But a few days after that interview Donald Trump gave a speech saying the same exact thing he said privately in that interview and for most of this pandemic he is mostly just repeating what the supposed gold standard expert Dr. Fauci told him. Donald Trump could have been quicker but he did a travel ban when no one thought he should, earlier then others would have. He did a lockdown more extreme then anything this country has ever done. Brix said back in March that if we did everything perfectly, according to Fauci’s model, we would have 200 thousand deaths. As it stands now we are now 27 thousand deaths over “near perfect”. All we have as a point of comparison is what Democrats were saying during the crucial month, and what they now say with the benefit of hindsight. During the crucial month they didn’t really seem to know what concrete policy to ask for and every day on tv said Trump should show more leadership, like Andrew Cuomo. Donald Trump who was acting in such a way that resulted in 27k more deaths then “near perfect” should have acted more like the person behind one of the worst corona responses on the planet.

When the chips were down, democrats and the media could not tell the difference between near “near perfect” and the worst corona handling on the planet because they can’t tell the difference between competency and how you talk on tv. With the benefit of seven months’ worth of hindsight and being a backseat driver you would think democrats would now be able to point to what date they would do what policy, instead on the debate stage they claimed they would have had no lockdown and no deaths and have no idea what they would have done differently besides listen to the experts responsible for our awful corona response. If a Democrat was president we would have never gotten the FDA to loosen its restrictions keeping the country from being able to test for corona, we would have done no travel bans, we would have listened to the WHO for longer and we might have locked down even slower, and we would have trusted our experts even though they had a total failure of leadership that is not unique to Trump. Under a democrat president we may very well have had a corona death rate much bigger then we do now, but things would have been more normal, so the news would have told you they did a good job and you wouldn’t have to feel bad about it. And at the end of the day it is definitely true of foreign policy and there is no reason for it to be untrue otherwise. A return to normal means a higher body count, but the press telling you everything is going just fine and a good job is being done. Abnormal is Florida and Georgia having lower deaths than most EU countries, normal is Andrew Cuomo doing a victory lap and getting a book deal to brag about his corona response even though it was one of the worst on the planet.

A vote for Joe Biden says I can't tell what’s good or bad, what’s better or worse, I just want everyone to shut up so I don’t have to be bothered by not knowing. A vote for Joe Biden says I cant tell the difference between TV and reality, so I would rather things be good on TV even if it means people die in a country I don’t know about. A vote for Joe Biden says the people responsible for making me feel things are worse then they have ever been should be appeased, and anytime they make the country feel this way it means they should be given what they want and nothing is worse than if they don’t get their way. A vote for Joe Biden means the people who resort to emotionally abusive behavior to get their way win, and the people who cause a fuss or make a stink lose. A vote for Joe Biden means corruption won’t be something discussed or examined critically but will be a punchline and object of mockery if brought up. There is a difference between who the press decides to tell you is fine and competent and actual real outcomes that happen in the real world. Even in a time of crisis the press cannot tell the difference between what is unreal and what is reality. It not only causes them to be less effective in elections it leads the white house into being an over glorified pr firm with a bunch of lawyers attached.

Boring school principals giving speeches no one watches and playing pretend dress up for an entirely contrived ceremonial function does not matter, the west wing civic religion that a small cabal of people engage in is not worth ruining the country or the planet. People who claim to be pro democracy argue the fact more people have tuned in to the presidency then ever before is proof of something nefarious, I would flip that on its head, and claim the people who used to be in charge have produced a political class that are fanatics to a civic religion so revolting that the entire country has tuned out. In the sixties, people paid attention to national and local politics and were engaged citizens, by the time we have gotten here no one was tuned in or paying attention to anything at all. A democracy can not function while its citizens have lost the will to politically live. The American people can not live on Vox explainers trying to write up how a legislative monstrosity like Obamacare is genius and why you should be excited just like they are. The American people cannot live on Ben Shapiro doing youtube videos arguing with random college students.

The changes people notice under Trump are not proof of our system dying, it's proof we were already on heaven’s doorstep and got a gasping chance at living another day. People feel like they are being strangled bit by bit and are not getting a reprieve. The big problems facing our time will not be solved by a small group of people obsessed with west wing Confucionism proposing boondogles and wonk nonsense that does nothing substantive or helps anyone at all. The democrat party is quite frankly a dead end, on a course towards a socialist death spiral and energy austerity. Without Trump, the republican party is nothing but three guys and an excel spreadsheet proposing tax cuts that aren't even that good and being annoyed at even being elected or having power. If Donald Trump wins, the brand pivot of a Republican party that takes action is preserved, and the country lives to fight another day.

Nothing is certain, and things will not automatically work out but if one half of our political culture gets wiped out as zombie reaganites cannibalize the party so they can reign in electoral hell nothing good will come of it. Donald Trump is a chance to live to fight another day. You might not like having to tune in, but Donald Trump is advancing the plot.

Although the people who lost the last election play acted at learning tough lessons there remains unfinished business. There are premises that need to be laid to rest once and for all.

Donald Trump did not win because of evil racism authoritarian Putin brain waves encouraging the American people to be bad. He won because he picked popular policies and was better at politics then they were. Donald Trump won because picking popular policies and being good at politics is more important then being good at talking from a teleprompter. The most important lesson that needs to be learned is when it comes to the media, perception and onslaught appeasing the propagandists doesn’t matter. Spending most of your energy and resources on appearing up to snuff to the press is actively a bad thing, and the more all politicians can feel they should think for themselves the better off our country will be. The lesson that needs to be learned is you don’t win by sucking up to journalists. That Donald Trump isn’t a racist authoritarian Putinist, and that Donald Trump is a good politician and better then any of the other candidates around.

The country has a choice next week, to disprove the snot nosed know-it-alls who ruined the country and aren't even good at what they do, once and for all. A specter haunts our country and the endless propaganda being pumped into people’s minds is poisoning America and the American people. You do not solve this by giving them everything they want. You solve this by living to fight them another day. You solve this by viewing the challenge ahead of you and choosing “yes, and”. Through dirty tricks and insider machinations the press’ favorite to win the presidency, Kamala Harris, is being foisted on us even after failing more spectacularly in her primary then almost any other candidate. She’s a teetering lightweight the American people soundly rejected. A vote for Joe Biden isn’t a vote to calm things down and soothe the country. It's a vote to install someone who is a bloodthirsty partisan for the worst people who caused all this. Kamala Harris wasn’t picked to appease you, Kamala Harris was picked to appease them. They would love Kamala Harris. Would you? They claim to be running an existential election. Did they pick someone who would make you more likely to vote for them, or did they just pick the person they wanted anyway? They think they are slick operators who need to do nothing but the most extreme version of all the things they themselves like. They not only think the media game and propaganda are important. They think it's all you need.

In this election, we have a chance to prove them all wrong. A vote for Donald Trump says the dumb media appeasement theatrics are not only not the main thing, they also aren’t even at all necessary. Let the glorified self=important gossip columnist publish their trash. Politics shouldn't be run by cowering worms. It should be run by men.

I hope in this election the American people don' choose to appease, to cower, to worry and despair, to act out of just wanting to give up and end it all even if it's with the people who got us into this mess and refuse to learn any lessons. I hope the American people choose to smile, to laugh, and to continue to win another day. Big challenges are ahead for our country, and big challenges won't be met by clinging to dead ends or a stagnant elite. Big challenges will be met by big players ready to play the big game. We are on the eve of a historic election, and I hope we can lay to rest what lingering dead ends remain, once and for all. (read more)

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