The Blog

2020-

2020-12-24 c
THE COVID-CON III
"Although the science behind keeping restaurants open is a worthy debate, it is important to remember that society is not a science experiment. There are tremendous social, economic, and legal consequences that come with such policies that we have seen play out throughout the pandemic."

Closing Restaurants Is Unscientific and Dangerous

With small business owners struggling under the weight of lockdown orders, Los Angeles and New York City drew intense criticism recently for closing restaurants again. Los Angeles issued an outdoor dining ban on top of its existing indoor dining ban and New York an indoor dining ban which, with the coming winter cold, by default ends outdoor dining as well. Both these cities have been especially heavy-handed with their application of public health interventions, issuing different policies with alarming frequency. Such behavior in itself leads to confusion and turmoil as communities are forced into situations to which they can never adapt financially or socially.

In light of growing knowledge about Covid-19 as well as our experience with the outcomes of public health interventions, restaurant closures should not be seen as a sensible policy. Not only do they cause tremendous economic and social trauma, but they also lack strong scientific backing and legal consistency. Closing restaurants, especially at this stage in the pandemic, will not only lead to adverse public health consequences, but will also undermine the rule of law.

The Faulty Science Behind Restaurant Closures

The main rationale behind closing restaurants pertains to stemming the recent upticks in Covid-19 cases and deaths. Part of this could be attributed to the fact that this time of the year is flu season, and it was correctly predicted earlier in the year that winter would bring a resurgence of the virus. Another explanation cites Thanksgiving family gatherings as another large contributor, as individuals gathered in spaces where guidelines were unlikely practiced. These are all reasonable explanations and one can go in many directions with this information, but closing restaurants is not one of them.

Although restaurants are sometimes labeled “superspreaders” according to contact tracing published by the state of New York, restaurants and bars only account for 1.43% of transmissions. Such data does not seem to be an anomaly as another report from Marion County, Oregon suggests that only 1% of transmissions could be traced to restaurants and bars.

... According to a recent study published by researchers at Stanford University, highly broad and disruptive policies such as restaurant closures are inferior to more precise policies such as occupancy limits. It also found that restrictive policies such as stay at home orders lead to increased transmission rates upon reopening, likley due to a backload of pent up demand

... Another important and concerning development that could result from restaurant closures is the general unraveling of the rule of law. In the eyes of many, restaurant closures are unscientific, arbitrary, economically devastating, and culturally demoralizing. On their face, restaurant closures represent a legally undisciplined policy that exhibits arbitrary and reckless rulemaking.

... The recent wave of restaurant closures, most notably in New York City and Los Angeles, threatens to continue the disastrous policies that have characterized the pandemic. They not only go against mounting scientific evidence, but seem to conform to a style of decision-making based on narratives and not reality. (read more)

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