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2020-

2020-04-13 c
Viral News - David Stockman Runs the Numbers

To wit, what’s needed is isolation and protection of the elderly and already medically afflicted populations and an opening of the spigot for any an all therapeutics and palliatives which could mitigate the illnesses and minimize deaths among those who contract the virus (whether the FDA approves or not), not a freezing of commerce, economic activity and social life among the overwhelming bulk of the population which would otherwise weather this new form of winter flu and develop herd immunity.

Thus, of the 4,758 deaths in New York state attributed to Covid-19 as of April 6, 63% of the deaths were among those over 69 years of age, while just 7% of the cases were those under 50.

So we will say it again: The death rate per 100,000 population in New York was 70X higher among those over 69 years than among those under 50 years:
•3,000 Covid deaths among those over 69 years = 183/100,000;
•333 Covid deaths among those under 50 years = 2.6/100,000;

Likewise, 86% or 4,089 of those who died had at least one other chronic disease:
•The leading underlying illness was hypertension, which showed up in 55% of the deaths.
•Next was diabetes, which was diagnosed in 1,755 deaths, or about 37% of the cases.
•Other top illnesses found in those who died from coronavirus were hyperlipidemia; coronary artery disease; renal disease and dementia.

Folks, this isn’t the data for Wyoming or East Jesus. This is the epicenter of the putative plague, where upwards of 13 million New Yorkers under 50 years of age have essentially been put under house arrest by Governor Cuomo. And for what? To protect them from a 2.6 per 100,000 death rate?

Let’s be clear. It is not our choice to trade in the ghoulish data on the death rates of American citizens. But when CNN carries the death rate on a continuous screen crawler, which is apparently updated by the hour, you have no choice but to, well, get the facts straight.

So in the first place, New York’s tiny Covid death rate of 2.6 per 100,000 among those under the age of 50 years needs some context. To wit, in the most recent year, the total New York death rate in that age category was 91 per 100,000 or 35X the Covid rate. Moreover, the under 50 death rate for accidents and suicides alone was 34 per 100,000 or 13X the Covid rate.

So, yes, every death is tragic, but what we are dealing with is marginalia from a societal viewpoint, not a once in a 1000 year plague that requires the virtual shutdown of economic life.

Indeed, if we wished to be politically incorrect, we could slam Governor Cuomo for running the ultimate Nanny State gambit and be done with it. Except except…. there are the old and sick folks allegedly being protected by his sweeping stay-at-home orders.

But exactly how keeping young folks out of restaurants protects the elderly with medical conditions, who would now be well advised to stay away from said venues, is hard to fathom. Besides, even the smoking gun New York state data on the high 183 per 100,000 death rate from Covid-19 for those over 69 itself needs contextual amplification.

In the most recent year, for example, the death rate for the New York State population over 69 years of age (1.642 million) was 6,465 per 100,000 or 35X the current Covid rate.

That is, the grim reaper doth cometh, inexorably. And in the case of the four leading co-morbidity diseases that have been widely present in Covid cases – diabetes, heart disease, pneumonia and lower respiratory illnesses – the death rate is 2,800 per 100,000.

In other words, the leading co-morbidities with Covid have a year-in and year-out mortality rate that is 15X higher than than the Covid death rate that has occurred to date among New York’s over 69 population.

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